Equity Risk Premium (ERP) has fallen to the “danger zone” that often precedes a rapid bear market. ERP is earnings yield (trailing EPS/Price, or P/E upside down) minus the 10Y yield. When ERP nears minus 1.50σ (red dots, Dec-61, Dec-69, Sep-87, Jan-00, now) a short, sharp bear market often occurs

Source: Stifel

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ISM MANUFACTURING

The ISM non- manufacturing index rebounded in August from its weakest reading of the year in July. The index is still slightly below its average for the first six months of 2018 — a sign that economic growth is likely to moderate in the second half

Strong growth continued to support domestic demand in August, which is expected to continue in the near term as growth remains above trend

MARKIT EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI

Euro-area businesses are starting to feel the heat from recently intensified trade tensions even as economic growth remains solid for now

The PMI manufacturing rose to 54.5 in August from 54.3 in July, marginally exceeding a prior flash estimate. The increase masks concern over business prospects, with expectations dropping to their lowest in 23 months

⇒EURO BUSINESSES SHOW WARNING SIGNS AMID SOLID ECONOMIC EXPANSION

U.S LABOUR MARKET

American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.

Average hourly earnings for private workers increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, a Labor Department report showed Friday, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and the median projection for 2.7 percent. Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 from the prior month, topping the median forecast for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, still near the lowest since the 1960s.

source: Bloomberg

Important News

  • American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.
  • Average hourly earnings for private workers increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, a Labor Department report showed Friday, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and the median projection for 2.7 percent. Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 from the prior month, topping the median forecast for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, still near the lowest since the 1960s.

source: EFG AM

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