The CFTC’s Committment of Trader’s (COT) data for the 10-year US Treasury note has displayed a large increase in the size of the net speculative short position, yet this is at odds with what I observed in terms of market sentiment amongst traders and portfolio managers




Trade-war fears are diminishing among German investors, with a confidence index rising for a second consecutive month. Expectations for Europe’s powerhouse improved more than economists predicted in September — a gain the ZEW Center for European Economic Research pinned partly on a trade deal between the U.S. and Mexico that highlighted an alternative to escalating tensions


The European Central Bank has left the broad message in its monetary policy decision press release unchanged — the Governing Council is on track to wind down its asset purchase program by the end of this year. The risks to the outlook are not great enough to alter its course

Expectations for the staff economists to trim their growth forecasts have probably increased. A report from Bloomberg News yesterday indicated the staff economists have broadly trimmed their forecasts even if strong labour should support private demand


A gauge of underlying U.S. inflation unexpectedly cooled in August as apparel prices fell by the most in about seven decades and medical-care costs declined, offering Americans a respite from accelerating price gains

Fed policy makers are widely expected to raise interest rates later this month, though a more persistent slowdown in inflation could affect their outlook for future increases

source: Bloomberg

Important News

  • US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has sent an invitation to senior Chinese officials to restart trade talks later this month, according to people familiar with the matter. The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods
  • Sunday’s Swedish election failed to deliver a clear winner, with the ruling centre-left bloc and the centre-right opposition accumulating 144 and 143 seats respectively. The Sweden Democrats, a far-right anti-immigration party, have 62 seats, providing a significant influence in Parliament

source: Bloomberg, EFG AM


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