“Most surveyed companies are now experiencing unprecedented difficulties and have become increasingly pessimistic about business prospects for the next six months,” Li Wei, the economics professor at CKGSB who oversees the survey, said in a commentary accompanying the September survey results.

Source: Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

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Eurozone CPI

While the small acceleration of underlying inflation registered over the last two years was enough for the European Central Bank to announcean end to its asset purchases, the move back toward target remains sluggish and there are no signs yet of the “vigorous pick-up” alluded to by President Mario Draghi. That creates uncertainty surrounding the timing of the first rate hike

The core figure should keep moving higher, albeit gradually. That move should be buttressed by accelerating wage growth. Compensation per employee rose to 2.3% year over year in 2Q from a trough of 1% in 2Q16

FOMC Meeting Minute

«All participants expressed the view that it would be appropriate for the Committee to continue its gradual approach to policy firming by raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting.»

«A few participants expected that policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time and a number judged that it would be necessary to temporarily raise the federal funds rate above their assessments of its longer-run level in order to reduce the risk of a sustained overshooting of the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective or the risk posed by significant financial imbalances.»

Chinese GDP

China’s economic growth slowed more than expected in the third quarter, as weak industrial output data and what the government called the “severe international situation” challenged efforts to stabilize the economy and reach its growth targets

The economy has faced increasing headwinds this year, with worsening trade tensions and a slumping stock market hurting confidence in the outlook. Those problems have prompted officials to step up stimulus and pledges of further support, but the impact of those measures has yet to kick in and more may be needed

⇒ ECONOMY SLOWS AMID DARKER OUTLOOK AT HOME AND ABROAD

Source: Bloomberg

Important News

  • On Thursday China’s onshore renminbi rate slid 0.2% to 6.938 renminbi versus the dollar, its lowest level since January 2017
  • Michel Barnier, the European Union’s Brexit negotiator said that “90% of the accord on the table has been agreed with Britain”, although the Irish border issue could derail talks

Source: Bloomberg

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