The chart shows three-month changes in US retail sales vs. three-month changes in credit card debt outstanding. That’s another way to measure the dependence of retail sales on credit cards.




The September personal income and spending report will comfort the Federal Reserve with respect to its well-communicated mission to continue gradually unwinding policy accommodation, despite recent market jitters. With core PCE anchored at the 2% target for five consecutive months, there is no reason – at least from the dual mandate standpoint – for the Fed to back off from its announced course of action

BoJ Meeting

The Bank of Japan appears to have little choice but to keep its stimulus flowing, with a weaker inflation outlook, and increasing risks to growth from a U.S.-China trade war and a slowdown in China

Bloomberg analists don’t expect a change in policy anytime soon

Eurozone GDP

The euro-area slowed in 3Q, with growth dipping to 0.2%, below the economy’s trend rate of growth. Part of the weakness is temporary, but underlying momentum appears to have ebbed

A persistent slowdown to 0.2% a quarter would be a major source of concern to the European Central Bank and could prompt a delay to higher interest rates

U.S. Labour Market

The breadth of job creation remains solid — an important indication that the escalation of trade tensions is not being white-washed by short-lived fiscal stimulus stemming from tax cuts

The latest labor data will not meaningfully change Fed policy makers’ assessment of economic conditions, and therefore support the case for a December rate increase, assuming that financial conditions are relatively stable in the interim

Source: Bloomberg


Indicies and Equity Sectors

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