The chart shows three-month changes in US retail sales vs. three-month changes in credit card debt outstanding. That’s another way to measure the dependence of retail sales on credit cards.

Source: macronomy.blogspot.com/

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U.S. PCE 

The September personal income and spending report will comfort the Federal Reserve with respect to its well-communicated mission to continue gradually unwinding policy accommodation, despite recent market jitters. With core PCE anchored at the 2% target for five consecutive months, there is no reason – at least from the dual mandate standpoint – for the Fed to back off from its announced course of action

BoJ Meeting

The Bank of Japan appears to have little choice but to keep its stimulus flowing, with a weaker inflation outlook, and increasing risks to growth from a U.S.-China trade war and a slowdown in China

Bloomberg analists don’t expect a change in policy anytime soon

Eurozone GDP

The euro-area slowed in 3Q, with growth dipping to 0.2%, below the economy’s trend rate of growth. Part of the weakness is temporary, but underlying momentum appears to have ebbed

A persistent slowdown to 0.2% a quarter would be a major source of concern to the European Central Bank and could prompt a delay to higher interest rates

U.S. Labour Market

The breadth of job creation remains solid — an important indication that the escalation of trade tensions is not being white-washed by short-lived fiscal stimulus stemming from tax cuts

The latest labor data will not meaningfully change Fed policy makers’ assessment of economic conditions, and therefore support the case for a December rate increase, assuming that financial conditions are relatively stable in the interim

Source: Bloomberg

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